Why Putin will fail in Syria?

Moscow joined the Syrian war on 30th September, by launching airstrikes in different opposition held territories killing mostly civilians and opposition fighters. In addition of providing air support to the Assad regime troops, Iranian IRGC and Hezbollah offensive in Hama Suburbs, Latakia and Aleppo. Instead of capturing strategic positions in Ghab plains and Hama suburbs, the Assad regime forces suffered heavy causalities in armoured vehicles and personal. The Syrian opposition forces has manged to hold their line of defence.

After four weeks of Russian intervention in Syria, the Assad regime troops did not achieve any strategic gains on the ground despite the heavy Russian air support. Many Experts believe that heavy bombardment from Russian air force alone will not change the scales in the favour of Assad regime, because of the weakness that SAA and allied Shiite militia has suffered early this year.

Saudi Arabia will not allow Syria to fall in the hands of Iran and Russia!

Saudi Arabia sees the conflict in Syria against Iran as an existential battle, and it will not accept the fall of Syria in the hands of the Iranians and Russians, like it didn’t accept the Iranians to take over Yemen. It will not be easy for Saudis to form a coalition as they did in Yemen, because there are Arab states that do not agree with Saudis vision regarding the solution to end this conflict, but they will increase their military support for Syrian Opposition groups in order to defeat the Russian and Iranian forces

Free Syrian Army reject Russia’s assist!

Free Syrian Army rejected a Russian offer to assist them in fight against Islamic State and dismissed Russia’s call for new elections to end the Syrian war.

“Russia is bombing the Free Syrian Army and now it wants to cooperate with us, while it remains committed to Assad? We don’t understand Russia at all!”

Said Lieutenant Colonel Ahmad Saoud, a spokesman for the FSA Division 13.

Russia entered the war and began an aerial campaign in Syria, claiming it was targeting ISIS and other “terrorists” after saying that moderate rebels do not even exist. Most of Russia’s targets so far has been against the civilians and opposition groups and the campaign is intended to prop up Assad regime rather than eliminating ISIS. Syrian opposition groups will begin to unite and co-ordinate more between themselves to fight the Russian invasion as they claim.

Escalating the Sectarian conflict!

Western and most Arab leaders say that President Assad has lost all legitimacy, Assad has also lost the consent of Syria’s Sunni Arab majority, not to mention Kurds and other minority groups, to accept his rule. Even if he could somehow defeat ISIS and all Syrian opposition groups, which would take a whole lot more than a couple dozen of Russian airstrikes, there’s little reason to think that any number of atrocities will impose order in Syria.

Russia’s history of interventions in the civil wars and conflicts is full of failures, it has intervened military in Chechnya in 1994 which resulted in Chechen victory and withdrawal of Russian troops from Chechnya. Also in Afghanistan in 1979 than at the end they pulled out of Afghanistan after a decade of fighting, which resulted in death of 15,000 Soviet troops, and this war was one of the reasons that led to the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Russia will fail in Syria, because Moscow’s position is opposed to the majority of the Syrian people which are Sunni Muslims, Russia presents itself as an enemy of the Sunni Islam since the Russian Orthodox Church declared a “holy war” in Syria, and this will encourage the Syrian Opposition forces and Jihadists to fight them fiercely.

This war is likely to worsen outrage against Assad regime across the region, redoubling both the popular Syrian uprising and the wider Sunni jihadist movement. For another, the Putin-Assad coalition, joined by Iran and Hezbollah, is dominated by Shiites and other non-Sunnis like Christians, which will deepen the sectarian dynamics of the war in the Middle East. Given that President Assad represents a sectarian minority in Syria, the more sectarian the war becomes, the more impossible it becomes for him to win the war.

One thought on “Why Putin will fail in Syria?

  1. I agree, hence the Russian change of wording, which is not now demanding Assad stay. There are moves to coordinate and meet with the rebels etc a bit like Vienna a week ago. An all inclusive hot pot of the most murderous, villainous people on earth. Their goal to sit around a table and discuss peace, while at the same time fighting IS, bearing in mind they are Islamic themselves. As Mandela once taught us sometimes it’s better to face the future together while not forgetting the past and just get on with life.

    Like

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